Regardless of the place you flip, from faculty basketball analysts to betting specialists, Duke is favored to win the nationwide title.
The Blue Devils got odds as quick as -110 as soon as the all-chalk Last 4 was finalized. They’re dealing with a Houston workforce that’s on a 17-game successful streak, then whichever SEC consultant emerges from the Florida-Auburn recreation.
Why would I play the contrarian for the heck of it? I simply noticed Duke with my very own eyes. Give me the Dukies over the sphere.
A median faculty fan is aware of in regards to the KenPom stat I discussed yesterday—how these Last 4 groups personal 4 of the ten finest KenPom adjusted effectivity rankings of all time. However I don’t assume we’re making sufficient of a special factoid.
Duke may develop into the primary workforce in KenPom.com’s historical past (since 1997) to complete with an adjusted offensive ranking above 130 factors per 100 possessions. They’re at 130.1 by the Elite Eight.
The Blue Devils’ effectivity was evident after I coated them within the East Regional in Newark. Cooper Flagg is a menace anyplace on the court docket, however in addition they boast an unstoppable lob risk in Khaman Maluach, who racked up extra dunks than I may depend, and three 40% 3-point shooters within the beginning 5—Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James.
The principle argument I’ve seen in favor of Houston has to do with its expertise and defensive would possibly. In spite of everything, it is a matchup between the No. 1 KenPom offense and the No. 1 protection, and Houston’s roster is crammed with fourth- and fifth-year gamers who theoretically can be extra comfy underneath the lights than Duke’s freshman trio of Flagg, Knueppel and Maluach.
I’ve supported this Houston workforce all season, and I’d take the Cougars in another matchup—simply not this one. Duke has a smothering protection of its personal, one I belief greater than Houston’s offense.
The Duke gamers like to play protection, one thing you possibly can’t say about each freshman-heavy lineup. Whereas Duke has shot a minimum of 50% in all 4 event video games so far, it has additionally held three of these opponents beneath 37% from the sphere, with Arizona and Caleb Love being the one exceptions. The Blue Devils deflated a high-powered Alabama offense like a balloon; a Houston workforce that has scored within the 60s every of the final two video games received’t trouble them.
Florida has had a terrific 12 months however wanted a miracle to get previous Texas Tech. Auburn had a bumpy end to the common season, and it feels such as you’re listening to a few Johni Broome damage each three video games. Each groups have the top-end expertise to win a championship virtually any season, however Duke’s depth and full rotation are nonetheless superior.
Bonus prediction: Should you’re sick of chalk, try the ladies’s Last 4, which is far more various than the lads’s—with three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2. That No. 2 belongs to UConn, which, regardless of its seeding, is the highest-rated workforce on the metrics website BartTorvik.com. I like Paige Bueckers, Sarah Sturdy and the Huskies to win the title—an actual triumph for underdogs in all places.
