How Fall Of Syria’s Assad Exposed Limits Of China’s Middle East Diplomacy

Simply over a yr in the past, China gave Bashar al-Assad and his spouse a heat welcome throughout their six-day go to to the nation, providing the previous Syrian chief a uncommon break from years of worldwide isolation for the reason that begin of a civil warfare in 2011.

Because the couple attended the Asian Video games, President Xi Jinping vowed to assist Assad in “opposing exterior interference” and in Syria’s rebuilding, whereas his spouse Asma was feted in Chinese language media.

However the abrupt finish to the rule of the authoritarian chief so explicitly backed by Xi solely final yr has dealt a blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions within the Center East and uncovered the bounds of its technique within the area, analysts say.

A coalition of rebels seized Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday after a lightning offensive that toppled Assad’s regime and ended his household’s 50-year dynasty.

“There’s been a number of an exaggerated sense of China’s capacity to form political outcomes within the area,” stated Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council.

Whereas the collapse of the Assad regime was seen decreasing the affect within the Arab world of his fundamental backers, Iran and Russia, it was additionally a blow for China’s international ambitions, stated Fulton.

“Numerous what (China has) been doing internationally has relied on assist with these international locations, and their lack of ability to prop up their largest associate within the Center East says rather a lot about their capacity to do a lot past the area.”

TACKLING HOTSPOTS

After China brokered a deal between long-time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese language media praised Beijing’s rising profile in a neighbourhood lengthy dominated by Washington. 

Wang Yi, China’s high diplomat, stated the nation would play a constructive function in dealing with international “hotspot points”.

China additionally brokered a truce between Fatah, Hamas and different rival Palestinian factions earlier this yr and has made repeated requires a ceasefire in Gaza.

However regardless of bringing Center Jap leaders to Beijing and rounds of “shuttle diplomacy” by its Center Jap envoy, Zhai Jun, within the months since, Palestinians haven’t fashioned a unity authorities and the battle in Gaza continues.

“Assad’s sudden downfall just isn’t a situation Beijing needs to see,” stated Fan Hongda, a Center East scholar at Shanghai Worldwide Research College. “China prefers a extra steady and impartial Center East, as chaos or a pro-American orientation within the area doesn’t align with China’s pursuits.” 

The response by China’s overseas ministry to Assad’s fall has been muted, specializing in the protection of Chinese language nationals and calling for a “political resolution” to revive stability in Syria as quickly as doable.

Ministry of overseas affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, on Monday appeared to go away a gap for engagement with the longer term authorities: “China’s pleasant relations with Syria are for all Syrian individuals,” she stated.

Chinese language specialists and diplomats say Beijing will now bide its time earlier than recognising a brand new authorities in Damascus. 

It might use its experience and monetary muscle to assist reconstruction, they are saying, however its commitments are prone to be restricted as a result of China has sought to minimise monetary dangers abroad in recent times.

Syria joined China’s flagship Belt and Highway Initiative in 2022, however there have been no vital investments by Chinese language corporations since, partly on account of sanctions. 

China is “probably not capable of basically change the West both as an financial associate, or diplomatic or army power within the area,” stated Invoice Figueroa, assistant professor on the College of Groningen and an knowledgeable in China-Center East relations.

“China in 2024 has means much less cash than China in 2013 – 2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa stated. There’s “an apparent reassessment happening within the path of safer investments and decreasing China’s dangers total,” he added.

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