Monday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions for Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Baltimore Ravens put their four-game successful streak on the road once they head south to face the Buccaneers.

These groups have so much in widespread. 

They’ve equivalent data at 4-2 and common virtually 30 factors per recreation. It’s no shock we now have a complete that’s as excessive as 50 at some sportsbooks. 

Nonetheless, if one thing appears too straightforward, then it in all probability is. I’ll share why a first-half play on the Ravens gives the very best worth on this matchup.

Watch out for the backdoor cowl

We’ve seen some motion on the full-game line with Tampa Bay as 3.5-point underdogs after opening at +5.5. 

That transfer is especially attention-grabbing as a result of the harm report doesn’t mean something alarming for the Ravens.

It’s totally doable that the bookmakers merely despatched out a awful opening quantity for the sport. 

Nonetheless, the road was in all probability a bit steep on condition that these groups are of an analogous caliber, which raises the query of why the Ravens would lay such a quantity on the highway on this spot.

In spite of everything, the Buccaneers have spectacular victories over the Commanders, Lions and Eagles—three groups with a mixed document of 14-5.

The road transfer does inform us that the Ravens can generally be responsible of taking part in with their meals.

In different phrases, they don’t at all times put their opponents away convincingly to kill off a recreation and repel any comeback threats.

For years, it’s been the Ravens’ protection that’s carried the group. Now we’re seeing the entrance workplace spend extra of its assets on offense to enhance their two-time MVP at quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

When Baltimore offers its protection a lead, it will possibly get picked aside. Based on FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric, the Ravens rank 18th within the league in opposition to the move.

Buccaneers can play from behind

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is within the midst of among the best begins of his profession, as he’s tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with 15 on the season.

Beforehand, Mayfield was extra thought-about a recreation supervisor, however he’s been in a position to come into his personal on this Tampa Bay offense.

Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles, who has a defensive pedigree, was rather more conservative in his first cease as a head coach with the New York Jets.

However now he’s develop into rather more amenable to letting his quarterback sling the rock because the Buccaneers rank within the league’s high half in move play share (57.1%).

There was a transparent shift within the Buccaneers’ strategy beneath Bowles as a result of he does have a superb run offense. Tampa Bay is one in all seven groups that common not less than 5 yards per carry.

Nonetheless, stopping the run is one thing the Ravens’ protection does very effectively, because it leads the league within the fewest yards per carry (3.0), dashing makes an attempt allowed (19.5) and yards allowed per recreation (59.0).

These numbers converse to Baltimore’s dominance early in video games as a result of groups typically must abandon the run when taking part in from behind. 

I count on an analogous state of affairs on Monday night time with a Tampa Bay protection that ranks twenty seventh in first-half factors allowed (14.0).

Greatest guess: Ravens 1H -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)